A Bloomberg column considers three scenarios, Looking Back and Looking Forward Are We Ready for This? As the Ukrainian government made a political calculation not to mobilize or move units into defensive positions, this map likely represents where most Ukrainian military formations started the war. One wonders if the Russian failure to employ their massive fires capacity to deliberately shape the battlefield over an extended period before the ground advance began will be marked by historians as a blunder. He says he has a beard like one. What does it do? In the game, moving away from the line of control proved difficult, as retreats under pressure always are. Russias apparent reticence to bury Ukraines military under a blanket of fire has surprised many Western observers. The Ukrainian commander, in the wargame, decided to send three brigades from the city to counterattack into the flank of Russian armored forces. The Russian ambassador to the UK discusses the conflict in Ukraine, a year on. apart from the sanctions - of the degradation of the situation in Ukraine . Crowd erupts in laughter at Russia's top diplomat after he claimed the Ukraine war 'was launched against us' An audience member shouted, "Come on!" . Approximately 90 percent of all nuclear warheads are owned by Russia and the United States, who each have around 4,000 warheads in their military stockpiles; no other nuclear-armed state sees a need for more than a few hundred nuclear weapons for national security, the FAS notes. According to Glaser, a global thermonuclear war on this scale could certainly be considered a "worst-case scenario", although the title of the video hints at the fact that the sequence of events shown is simply part of the standard playbook. Maps: Tracking the Russian invasion of Ukraine - reuters.com Likewise, Russia carried out its own strategic nuclear drills just a matter of days before invading Ukraine. A simulation may resemble a game, or be one, as with wargames or business simulations. Russia's Military, Once Creaky, Is Modern and Lethal - The New York Times Plan A shows how a localized nuclear exchange could quickly escalate into a global catastrophe. Fact-Check | Video game simulation video from a game called ARMA 3 has gone viral with social media users claiming that it shows live visuals of the war between Russia and Ukraine. The livestream of a videogame superimposed with a banner that reads "Breaking News" and "Russia vs Ukraine war start (sic)" has triggered confusion online. Today's video presents a war simulation, which maps out a war between Russia and Ukraine. Putin joined Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko for a "major military . Russian President Vladimir Putin gets a sense that NATO is destined to intervene on Ukraines side. Based on the wargames, a clash with Russia in the Baltic states would result in the rapid defeat of U.S. forces and their allies, Ochmanek told Fox News. And secondly, the Russian assault in Kherson was temporarily halted, as the axis of advance in the south for a time turned northeast toward Mariupol. Prior to the conflict one of the Wests great concerns was Russias much-vaunted cyber capabilities. Simulating Nuclear War | Princeton Science & Global Security It uses extensive data sets of the nuclear weapons currently deployed, weapon yields, and possible targets for particular weapons, as well as the order of battle estimating which weapons go to which targets in which order in which phase of the war to show the evolution of the nuclear conflict from tactical, to strategic to city-targeting phases. This is what nuclear war between US and Russia would look - indy100 The more well-equipped and modernized units, he said, have moved into the area close to two breakaway provinces in Ukraine's east, where Russia instigated a separatist war in 2014 that continues . In our games, where we fight China or Russia blue gets its a** handed to it, not to put too fine a point on it, he said, during a panel discussion. Over the holidays, stuck at home sick so just fell into not getting dressed. The scenario shown in the piece is a plausible one based on the available evidence. STRATFOR created several scenarios describing different Russian invasion strategies: The reality looks most like Hold East Ukraine. In the actual conflict, Russias attempt at a rapid move to Kyiv aiming to decapitate the government appears to have backfired. Nine countries in the world possess nuclear weapons. On February 24, Russian forces began advancing into Ukrainian territory across several fronts, marking a major escalation in a conflict that started in 2014. ET, November 22, 2022 Ukraine expresses outrage after Hungarian prime minister's scarf shows western Ukraine as part of . Please check your browser settings to ensure that it is not blocking Facebook from running on straight.com. Russia says the top diplomats spoke on the move at a G20 meeting in India but did not hold Ukraine negotiations. In the game the Russian advance out of the Crimea was their most rapid and successful operation. Billionaire Oleg Deripaska said Russia could find its coffers empty already next year and needs investment from "friendly" countries to break the hold of . The breakaway regions were seized by Russian-backed rebels after Russia invaded Crimea in 2014. "Within 48 to 72 hours, Russian forces . Putin announced what he called a special military operation in Ukraine on February 24. If this wargame had been played at the Pentagon or the White House in the weeks leading up to the war, no strategist or policymaker would be shocked by any event so far seen in the war. The idea is that the threat of a nuclear strike would force any opponent, in this case NATO, to return to the status quo. More bad things happen, and a NATO move surprises everyone. "I would not want to speculate how long it would take for humanity to recover," Glaser said. Comparison of Russia and Ukraine Military Strengths (2023) This realistic, facts-based simulation is divided into 3 stages: Nuclear War, Nuclear Fallout and Nuclear Winter. The resulting immediate fatalities and casualties that would occur in each phase of the conflict are determined using data from NUKEMAP. Ex-French soldier who witnessed the Bucha war crimes committed against civilians by the Armed Forces of Ukraine survives assassination attempt by Kiev, requests asylum in Russia "Those 87K armed IRS agents are needed to fight the black market which will spring up as soon as CBDC is introduced." ZH Comment In short, unlike in the game, the Russian attacks were damaging but insufficient to overwhelm Ukraines defenses. File photo - Infantrymen of the 3rd Battalion, 69th Armored Regiment, 1st Brigade, 3rd Infantry Division, fire M1A2 System Enhancement Package Version 2 vehicles on Tapa Army Base, Nov. 13, 2015. It is therefore noteworthy that aside from Anonymous declaring cyber war on Russia, there is very little public reporting of actual cyberattacks by either side. March 2, 2022. Both were targets of the Russian ground and air assault, as a separate combined air and amphibious assault landed on the west side of the Dnieper to envelop Ukrainian defensive positions along the river line. Get a daily look at whats developing in science and technology throughout the world. Players take up the roles of Russia, the Ukrainian government, Ukrainian Separatists, the USA, and the European Union. In an intelligence update on Tuesday, the U.K. Ministry of Defense said that since the end of February, there has . Several scenarios via the excellent Naked Capitalism blog. The risk of nuclear war has increased dramatically in the past two years as the United States and Russia have abandoned long-standing nuclear arms control treaties, started to develop new kinds of nuclear weapons and expanded the circumstances in which they might use nuclear weapons. Ukraine's economy stabilizes after shock of war. The U.S., he explains, should not assume air and maritime superiority over the battlespace. But, on the other hand, no one involved in this wargame has been much surprised by anything unfolding on the ground. But as the conflict continues and Russian frustrations grow over their failure to rapidly collapse Ukrainian resistance, one can expect the Russians to revert to type and start employing their overwhelming superiority in artillery and airpower much more indiscriminately. Multiple scenarios give us ways to see divergent possibilities. This is the first of all strategic questions and the most comprehensive. What Ukraine must figure out now is Russias likely next moves, as Putin concludes that his invasion is not going to be a modern day Anschluss. While it is possible, of course, that a nuclear exchange remains "limited" and the other side backs off or responds with conventional weapons only, there would be huge pressure on decision-makers to "respond in kind" and deny the side to strike first any advantage. On Thursday (March 10), Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that he does not believe that the conflict in Ukraine would lead to a nuclear war. It must now be dawning upon senior commanders and possibly even Putin that they have grossly miscalculated, and are now in violation of Clausewitzs most important dictum: The first, the supreme, the most far reaching act of judgement that the statesman and a commander have to make is to establish the kind of war on which they are embarking; neither mistaking it for, nor trying to turn it into, something that is alien to its nature. Assuming war, other scenarios appear. There have been dozens of wars in the almost 80 years since World War II ended. He continued: There was a time when they simulated bombing runs on Denmark or coming down the Baltic Sea. "Our team used independent assessments of current U.S. and Russian force postures, nuclear war plans, and nuclear weapons targets," Glaser said. On the fifth day of the war, we find a similar situation, with the Russian forces having flowed out of the Crimea into close to the same positions they occupied in the wargame, and with the same choices before them as we found in the wargame. This may be where simulations and scenarios become useful. The hope is that students will develop insights from these wargames that help them better understand joint warfighting. And how has the war in Ukraine shifted things for the group? At present, the Russians appear to possess air superiority, but the reported 30+ sorties the Ukrainians are launching daily have denied the Russians the level of air dominance that they achieved in the wargame. How Poland Just Lost to Russia in a Massive Wargame (And What It Means) live Updates. Image: Andrey Rudakov/Bloomberg. Sign in to add this item to your wishlist, follow it, or mark it as ignored. At this time, the Russian fires complex (artillery, air, and missiles) switched its priority to destroying Ukrainian fire support systems. In terms of computer wargames, Operational Art of War IV apparently has some levels displaying Russian and Ukrainian armies at war. Click. The surviving remnants were overwhelmed and destroyed in the air, some being shot down by long-range air defense systems in Russia, with ranges extending into Ukrainian airspace. Fact Check-Videogame footage superimposed with news banner on Russia This exercise helps to ensure that NATOs nuclear deterrent remains safe, secure and effective.. Gotta love @BryanAlexanders ability to catalyze a conversation without leaning on hyperbole or triggers. Ukraine and several other countries . Liked it? The military escalation in the Ukraine came as an unexpected tragedy. At the same time, the Ukrainian team hoped to make Kharkiv a second Stalingrad, which would suck ever-increasing numbers of Russian forces into a bloody attritional fight. Another difference was in the impact of the Russian air and missile campaign. Tamara Patton, Moritz Ktt, Alex Glaser, Alex Wellerstein, Bruce Blair, Sharon Weiner, Zia Mian, Jeff Snyder, Everyone Practices Cancel Culture | Opinion, Deplatforming Free Speech is Dangerous | Opinion. Market data provided by Factset. Simulations perform a similar function, as a given run-through constitutes a narrative. Sun 13 Mar 2022 08.46 EDT Last modified on Sun 13 Mar 2022 10.42 EDT. RAND Senior Defense Analyst David Ochmanek discussed the simulations at the Center for a New American Security(CNAS) in Washington D.C. last week. In the wargame, the main Russian ground offensive was purposely delayed, as the Russian players focused on several days of shaping fires aimed at destroying critical enemy capabilities before committing the bulk of their ground forces. | Rob Reynolds, Two figures for generative AI: the calculator and the mad scientists assistant, Another queen sacrifice might be in the works, this time in Virginia. The Federation of American Scientists says online that these countries possessed roughly 12,700 warheads as of early-2022. Will Russia and Ukraine reach a peace settlement? But before that decision was announced, Russian intelligence sees missile and troop movements that indicate an impending NATO attack and decide to strike first with tactical nuclear weapons. or redistributed. A simulation, in contrast, is either a human or computer representation of a situation, where people (or software) make decisions to drive that situation to an end state. 72% 0. War in Petropol . We lost a lot of people, we lose a lot of equipment, we usually fail to achieve our objectives of preventing aggression by the adversary, Ochmanek added during the CNAS discussion. Front-line Polish army units faced the loss of between 60 and 80 percent of their equipment. Militaries across the world frequently carry out exercises to practise the mechanics of nuclear warfare, but the results of such exercises are rarely publicised. Simply use the dropdowns below to select your global powers. A simulation shows how a nuclear war between Russia and NATO could potentially play out in a horrific scenario that would result in the deaths of millions of people around the world within hours. He added that since the late Noughties, Russia has increasingly exercised its nuclear forces, both with live forces and also with tabletop forces. Figure 4: Wargame Situation End of Game Day 3 Southern Front. Also, at the start of the campaign, the Russians avoided striking at the four regional Ukrainian command and control headquarters, in order to allow them to communicate their surrender if the government collapsed. The Ukrainian military and people are putting up much stouter resistance than Putin or any of his senior-most commanders anticipated. Popular user-defined tags for this product: 2 Curators have reviewed this product. Watch this video to find out what will happ. In 2019, Harry J. Kazianis participated in an American simulation of a war between Russia and the U.S.-led North Atlantic Treaty Organization. NATO decides to respond in kind, Kazianis wrote. Russia-Ukraine war latest; Mark Rice-Oxley @markriceoxley69. In the north, a Ukrainian brigade conducted a spoiling attack against Russian forces across the border in Belarus. Since current events gradually render these alternate histories, they may also serve as interesting historical notes. Published On 4 Mar 2023 4 Mar 2023 Biden, Scholz pledge to punish Russia over Ukraine war Based on the wargames, a clash with Russia in the Baltic states would result in the rapid defeat of U.S. forces and their allies, Ochmanek told Fox News. The map above shows the prewar garrison positions of Ukraines land forces. Americas posture is also key when it comes to challenging potential adversaries such as Russia, according to Ochmanek. While it is not clear if Russian President Vladimir Putin would ever go so far as to use nuclear weapons, the escalation of the conflict in Ukraine has led to a spike in discussions about the potential outbreak of nuclear war. You have only 500s to defend Ukraine after that time the game is over. He explained: If youre trying to deter an adversary, what you might do is reveal the fact that youve been simulating you fight them because that is part of your deterrence. This elicited at least one critique. Russia Engages With Ukraine on Cyber Battlefield - TheStreet The preceding scenarios depict futures as narratives. Fears remain that Moscow will launch a nuclear strike on Ukraine. I'm a huge history/geography fan, so if you're interested in those things aswell, this channel may be perfect for you! AIR FORCE BUILDS NEW DEEP STRIKE 'SPY NETWORK' FOR AIR ATTACK. An EU official also said China providing arms to Russia would be an absolute red line and lead to sanctions: Report. The United States intends to replace its existing fleet of Minuteman III missiles which came into service in the early 1970s with a new . Thus, they have held back much of their overwhelming fires complex to avoid destroying significant amounts of infrastructure and killing too many of their Ukrainian brothers. This was the reasoning employed in the game, and most current reporting shows it was the thinking dominating the Kremlin. You've successfully subscribed to this newsletter! At least six Ukrainian battalions were overrun, and the remainder endured serious losses to aerial interdiction en route to the Dnieper. Putin joined Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko for a major military cooperation event on February 19, by which point over 100,000 Russian troops had massed along Russias Ukrainian border. Side-by-side comparison showcasing the relative conventional fighting strengths of Russia and Ukraine for the year 2023. The four-minute audiovisual piece called "Plan A", which was developed by researchers associated with Princeton University's Program on Science & Global Security (SGS), has seen renewed interest since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. In diverging from Western interpretations of the Russian way of war, the wargame closely mimicked what we mostly saw in the first few days of Russias actual military operations. Tim Barrick is a retired Marine Corps colonel and the director of wargaming at Marine Corps University. President Trumps fiscal 2020 budget plan proposes $750 billion for defense, up 5 percent from fiscal 2019. In an ironic reversal of the situation during the Cold War, NATO is now the dominant conventional coalition in Europe, while Russia is a weak state with a large but less powerful army. "In addition to the immediate death and suffering and economic and societal collapse, in the years following the war, the phenomenon of nuclear winter would exacerbate the catastrophe," he said, pointing to one study which found that more than five billion people could eventually die from a nuclear conflict between the United States and Russia. Join my discord server: https://discord.gg/A799aXy Support me on Patreon: https://www.patreon.c. Powered and implemented by FactSet Digital Solutions. Eastern Front Military War Simulator . The war in Ukraine is fuelling a global . All rights reserved. (U.S. Army photo by: Sgt Caitlyn Byrne, 10th Press Camp Headquarters). Moreover, by all accounts, the Ukrainian air force remains in the fight, and in combination with the remaining air defenses is having some success in contesting Ukraines airspace. Before NATO can impose its no-fly zone, Putin orders strikes on any remaining airfields and military assets around Lviv, Kazianis related. Videos can span from fixing the borders to mapping out war scenarios. In the two weeks prior to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Marine Corps University ran a four-day wargame to simulate the first several days of just such an invasion. Putin, and those advisers who still have his ear, may have been convinced many Ukrainians would welcome them as liberators and the march to Kyiv would be an easy one. March 1, 2023, 1:37 a.m. The global impact of Russia's war in Ukraine : NPR Nathan Barrick, Ph.D., a strategist at US Special Operations Command, is currently a student at the Marine Corps War College and a former U.S. Army Russian foreign area officer. Dr Blagden, a senior lecturer in international security at the University of Exeter, said political reasons and genuine preparation would both come into play. The war that erupted in eastern Ukraine in 2014 has already left 14,000 dead and an estimated 1.4 million displaced. The Russian . Russia-Ukraine war in maps and charts: Live Tracker - Al Jazeera Russia-Ukraine War. The views expressed in this article are the authors own and do not express the views or positions of Marine Corps University, the U.S. Marine Corps, the Department of Defense, or any part of the U.S. government. Some of that force was moved north to the Belarussian border in case of a secondary Russian assault out of western Belarus, but most of it was ordered east to help defend Kyiv and to bolster the Dnieper defense. In real life, the Ukrainians appear to have opted to do as our after-action analysis tells us was the best course of action, and Kharkiv continues to hold out against increasingly ferocious Russian assaults. All rights reserved. Still, their forces are greatly outnumbered, particularly in the air. Search is currently unavailable. NAVY PLANS 'BLUE FORCE' OPEN WATER WEAPONS STRATEGY FOR NEW FRIGATE. It may turn out the Russian advance was slowed due to political directives, but, at the moment, many observers can fairly attribute much of what is being reported from the battlefield to general Russian incompetence. In the simulation, Ukraine does not give up so easily, just like in real life today. Below are ten infographics that break down the history, politics and economics of the Ukraine-Russia crisis. Photos; Timeline; . Ukraine Vs Russia War Simulation - YouTube Much of the Ukrainian air force was destroyed on the ground as a result of Kalibr and Kh-101 cruise missile strikes, special operations-enabled targeting and direct action, and air strikes. At present, there is very little public discussion of how the Ukrainians are actually employing these forces. All rights reserved. Set against this backdrop, U.S. military outposts and aircraft carriers in the contested regions could face a potential devastating barrage of missiles. The result . Feb 25, 2023 2:35 PM EST. To Matt I'm sorry, and I' Facebook comments not loading? That Zelenskyy remains capable of talking to his commanders and the outside world is encouraging and clearly has provided a strategic level boost in the information war and in Ukrainian morale. (PDF) A Simulation of a Possible War between Russia and Ukraine: How RUSSIA VS UKRAINE IN ROBLOX! (Eastern Theatre War Simulator) Only in the south have we seen the Russians making the kind of rapid advances that were expected to take place throughout Ukraine. I think this is at the small unit scale, but havent played it. If you enjoyed the video, drop a LIKE and SUBSCRIBE for more.Join my discord server: https://discord.gg/A799aXySupport me on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/sturmfuhrerpkDOWNLOAD OFFICIAL VERSION FOR COMPUTER - https://bit.ly/3JNFVHR#StandWithUkraineIn just the last seven days, one million people have fled Ukraine because of the pointless war waged by the Russian Federation. To the end of assessing the consequences of the Ukrainian conflict on the Russian economy, this paper distinguishes four different processes: the structural downturn of the Russian economy prior to the events in Ukraine ; the initial impact - i.e. Kyivs forces try to help residents flee as Russian fighters press to capture city in eastern Ukraine. When @BryanAlexander is futuring about you, youd better start futuring yer own dang self! All fatality estimates are limited to acute deaths from nuclear explosions and would be significantly increased by deaths occurring from nuclear fallout and other long-term effects. They send salvos that are so great that we cannot intercept all the missiles, Ochmanek said. These Ukrainian forces were soon cut off as the Russian 41st Combined Arms Army attacked south into Ukraine on both sides of the Dnieper River at the same time. While many observers were surprised by the Russian approach, it was the course of action chosen by the Russian player in the game. We war-gamed an escalation of the Ukraine-Russia crisis - here's what
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